North American Renewable Natural Gas Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | January 2024

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North American Renewable Natural Gas Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | January 2024

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North American Renewable Natural Gas Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | January 2024

Thursday, 25th January 2024

In recent years, the North American energy landscape has been undergoing a transformative shift towards sustainability and environmental responsibility. One of the key enablers in this transition is the Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) market, a sector that has gained significant momentum and attention across the continent. RNG, also known as biomethane, is a renewable energy source derived from organic materials, such as agricultural waste, food waste, landfill wastes, and wastewater. It is a low-carbon alternative to traditional natural gas and holds the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions while providing a reliable and sustainable energy source.

Based on the number of facilities projected to come online by 2030, the North American RNG market is poised for growth, with production projected to reach 160 million MMBTUs by 2030 from 71.5 million MMBTUs in 2022. This growth trajectory is driven by increasingly stringent emissions standards and several government regulations mandating the uptake of clean fuels. The implementation of a Renewable Fuel Standard at the federal level and several state-level clean fuel standards has created a conducive atmosphere for the adoption of renewable natural gas.

The emergence of strategic partnerships and collaborations among industry stakeholders, including energy companies, technology providers, and government agencies, has been instrumental in advancing RNG projects and streamlining their implementation. These partnerships have accelerated innovation, reduced costs, and increased the overall efficiency of RNG production and utilization. However, challenges persist, including the need for substantial capital investment, infrastructure development, and grid integration to fully realize the potential of RNG. Additionally, market participants must address issues related to feedstock availability, transportation logistics, and competition from other renewable energy sources.

Table of Contents:

Table of Contents

1 Glossary and Methodology

1.1 Abbreviations

1.2 Market Definitions

1.3 Methodology: Primary and secondary research coupled with modelling

1.3.1 Facility-level data

1.3.2 Pathway-level split

1.3.3 Credit Volumes

1.3.4 CFS Incentives

1.3.5 RNG Prices

2 Executive Summary

2.1 North American RNG Market Size to more than double by 2030

2.2 Landfills Remains the Leading Source for Renewable Natural Gas Production

2.3 Livestock-based RNG at the Forefront of Emission Reduction

2.4 Waste Water Based RNG Comes at a Premium Price

2.5 CFS Incentives Fuel the Renewable Natural Gas Market

2.6 Transportation Leads the Charge in Renewable Natural Gas End-Use

2.7 Widening Gap in RNG Prices Based on End-Use

2.8 Integrated Oil & Gas Companies to Be Among the Mix for Offtakers

3 North America Renewable Natural Gas, Data Analysis, 2018-2030

3.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production, 2018-2030

3.1.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production, 2018-2022

3.1.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production, 2023-2030

3.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption, 2018-2030

3.2.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption, 2018-2022

3.2.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by Volume, 2023-2030

3.3 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Size by Value, 2018-2030

3.3.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Size by Value, 2018-2022

3.3.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Size by Value, 2023-2030

3.4 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Share, 2022 and 2030

3.4.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas, Regional Market Share, 2022

3.4.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas, Regional Market Share, 2030

4 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Dynamics

4.1 Market Drivers

4.2 Market Challenges

4.3 Market Opportunities

4.4 Trends in North America Market

5 North America Renewable Natural Gas, PESTLE Analysis

5.1 Political Factors

5.2 Economic Factors

5.3 Social Factors

5.4 Technological Factors

5.5 Legal Factors

5.6 Environmental Factors

6 North America Renewable Natural Gas Analysis, by Source

6.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production by Source, 2018-2030

6.1.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production by Source, 2018-2022

6.1.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production by Source, 2023-2030

6.2 North America Renewable Natural Feedstock Requirement by Source, 2018-2030

6.2.1 North America Renewable Natural Feedstock Requirement by Source, 2018-2022

6.2.2 North America Renewable Natural Feedstock Requirement by Source, 2023-2030

6.3 North America Renewable Natural Gas Average Carbon Intensity by Source, 2018-2030

6.3.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Average Carbon Intensity by Source, 2018-2022

6.3.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Average Carbon Intensity by Source, 2023-2030

6.4 North America Renewable Natural Gas, Cost of Production by Source

7 North America Renewable Natural Gas Analysis, by CFS Market

7.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by CFS Market, 2018-2030

7.1.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by CFS Market, 2018-2022

7.1.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by CFS Market, 2023-2030

7.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Credits Generated by CFS Market, 2018-2030

7.2.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Credits Generated by CFS Market, 2018-2022

7.2.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Credits Generated by CFS Market, 2023-2030

7.3 North America Renewable Natural Gas Incentives Generated by CFS Market, 2018-2030

7.3.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Incentives Generated by CFS Market, 2018-2022

7.3.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Incentives Generated by CFS Market, 2023-2030

7.4 Average Credit Prices Across Clean Fuel Markets, 2018-2022

7.4.1 Average RIN Prices, 2018-2022

7.4.2 Average Credit Prices across Clean Fuels Markets, 2018-2022

8 North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Analysis

8.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use, 2018-2030

8.1.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use, 2018-2022

8.1.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use, 2023-2030

8.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas, Potential End-use Opportunities

8.2.1 Feedstock for Green Hydrogen

8.2.2 Feedstock for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

8.2.3 Carbon Capture and Utilization

8.3 North America Renewable Natural Gas Retail Prices, 2018-2030

8.3.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Retail Prices, 2018-2022

8.3.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Retail Prices, 2023-2030

8.4 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Book and Claim

8.4.1 Certificates for Environmental Attributes:

8.4.2 Requirements for Book-and-Claim Accounting for Biomethane

8.4.3 Decoupling Certificates and Energy Commodities:

8.4.4 Accessing Environmental Benefits, Not Physical Energy:

9 North America Renewable Natural Gas Market Analysis, Policies and Regulatory Framework

9.1 Existing policies:

9.1.1 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

9.1.2 Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

9.1.3 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (CA-LCFS)

9.1.4 Oregon Clean Fuels Program (OR-CFP)

9.1.5 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard (BC-LCFS)

9.1.6 Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard (WA-CFS)

9.1.7 Califonia SB-1440

9.2 Recent Developments:

9.2.1 Canada Clean Fuel Standard

9.2.2 Pacific Coast Collaborative

9.2.3 New Mexico CFS

9.2.4 Minnesota CFS

9.2.5 Illinois CFS

9.2.6 New York CFS

10 Competitive Landscape

10.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities, 2022 and 2030

10.1.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities, 2022

10.1.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities, Projected for 2030

10.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production by Top-10 Project Developers, 2022 and 2030

10.2.1 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production by Top-10 Project Developers, 2022

10.2.2 North America Renewable Natural Gas Production by Top-10 Project Developers, Projected for 2030

11 Company Profiles

11.1 Top 5 Project Developers

11.1.1 Waste Management

11.1.2 Archaea Energy

11.1.3 Maas Energy Works

11.1.4 Morrow Energy

11.1.5 Clean Energy Fuels

11.2 Top 5 Offtaking Entities

11.2.1 SoCal Gas

11.2.2 Énergir

11.2.3 BP

11.2.4 UGI Corporation

11.2.5 Puget Sound Energy

12 Conclusion and outlook

13 Annexure: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Producer Database

13.1 North America, Renewable Natural Gas, Facility Details

14 About cCarbon.info

15 References

List of Figures

Figure 1: Renewable Natural Gas Market Share (In Million MMBtu) Expected in United States by 2030

Figure 2: Renewable Natural Gas Market Share (In Million MMBtu) Expected in Canada by 2030

Figure 3: Cost of Production by Source for North American Renewable Natural Gas (In USD/MMBTU)

Figure 4: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Retail Prices by End-Use (In USD/MMBTU)

Figure 5: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Production (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Figure 6: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Figure 7: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Figure 8: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size by Volume (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Figure 9: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size by Value (In Million USD), 2018-2022

Figure 10: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size by Value (In Million USD), 2023-2030

Figure 11: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Share (Million MMBTUs), United States, 2022

Figure 12: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Share (Million MMBTUs), Canada, 2022

Figure 13: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Share (Million MMBTUs), United States, 2030

Figure 14: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Share (Million MMBTUs), Canada, 2030

Figure 15: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Source (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Figure 16: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Source (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Figure 17: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Feedstock Requirement (In Million Tons) 2018-2022

Figure 18: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Feedstock Requirement (In Million Tons) 2023-2030

Figure 19: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Average Carbon Intensity by Source (In gCO2eq/MJ), 2018-2022

Figure 20: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Average Carbon Intensity by Source (In gCO2eq/MJ), 2023-2030

Figure 21: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Cost of Production by Source (In USD/MMBTU)

Figure 22: Clean Fuel Standards across North America

Figure 23: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by CFS Market (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Figure 24: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by CFS Market (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Figure 25: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Credits Generated by CFS Market (In Million MT), 2018-2022

Figure 26: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Credits Generated by CFS Market (In Million MT), 2023-2030

Figure 27: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Incentives Generated by CFS Market (In Million USD), 2018-2022

Figure 28: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Incentives Generated by CFS Market (In Million USD), 2023-2030

Figure 29: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2022

Figure 30: Average CFS Credit Prices, 2018-2022

Figure 31: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by End-Use (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Figure 32: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by End-Use (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Figure 33: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Prices (USD/MMBTU), 2018-2022

Figure 34: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Prices (USD/MMBTU), 2023-2030

Figure 35: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities (In million MMBTUs), 2022

Figure 36: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities (In million MMBTUs), 2030

Figure 37: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Top-10 Project Developers (In million MMBTUs), 2022

Figure 38: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Top-10 Project Developers (In million MMBTUs), 2030

List of Tables

Table 1: List of Abbreviations

Table 2: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production (In Million MMBTUs), 2022-2030

Table 3: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size (In Million USD), 2022-2023

Table 4: Production of North American Renewable Natural Gas (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2030

Table 5: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Average Carbon Intensity by Source (In gCO2eq/MJ), 2018-2030

Table 6: Credits Generated by Renewable Natural Gas in CFS Markets (In Million MT), 2018-2030

Table 7: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by End-Use (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2030

Table 8: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Top-10 Project Developers (In MMBTUs), 2022

Table 9: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Top-10 Project Developers (In MMBTUs), 2030

Table 10: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities (In MMBTUs), 2022

Table 11: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities (In MMBTUs), 2030

Table 12: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Production (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Table 13: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Table 14: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Table 15: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size by Volume (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Table 16: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size by Value (In Million USD), 2018-2022

Table 17: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Market Size by Value (In Million USD), 2023-2030

Table 18: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Regional Market Share, United States, 2022

Table 19: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Regional Market Share, Canada, 2022

Table 20: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Regional Market Share, United States, 2030

Table 21: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Regional Market Share, Canada, 2030

Table 22: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Source (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Table 23: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Source (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Table 24: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Feedstock Requirement (In Million Tons) 2018-2022

Table 25: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Feedstock Requirement (In Million Tons) 2023-2030

Table 26: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Average Carbon Intensity by Source (In gCO2eq/MJ), 2018-2022

Table 27: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Average Carbon Intensity by Source (In gCO2eq/MJ), 2023-2030

Table 28: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Cost of Production by Source (In USD/MMBTU)

Table 29: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by CFS Market (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Table 30: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by CFS Market (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Table 31: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Credits Generated by CFS Market (In Million MT), 2018-2022

Table 32: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Credits Generated by CFS Market (In Million MT), 2023-2030

Table 33: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Incentives Generated by CFS Market (In Million USD), 2018-2022

Table 34: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Incentives Generated by CFS Market (In Million USD), 2023-2030

Table 35: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2022 (USD/RIN)

Table 36: Average CFS Credit Prices (USD/MT), 2018-2022

Table 37: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by End-Use (In Million MMBTUs), 2018-2022

Table 38: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Consumption by End-Use (In Million MMBTUs), 2023-2030

Table 39: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Prices (USD/MMBTU), 2018-2022

Table 40: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Prices (USD/MMBTU), 2023-2030

Table 41: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities (In MMBTUs), 2022

Table 42: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Uptake by Top-10 Offtake Entities (In MMBTUs), Projected for 2030

Table 43: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Top-10 Project Developers (In MMBTUs), 2022

Table 44: North American Renewable Natural Gas, Production by Top-10 Project Developers (In MMBTUs), 2030

Table 45: Waste Management, Company Details

Table 46: Waste Management, Operational Details

Table 47: Archaea Energy, Company Details

Table 48: Archaea Energy, Operational Details

Table 49: Maas Energy Works, Company Details

Table 50: Maas Energy Works, Operational Details

Table 51: Morrow Energy, Company Details

Table 52: Morrow Energy, Operational Details

Table 53: Clean Energy Fuels, Company Details

Table 54: Clean Energy Fuels, Operational Details

Table 55: SoCal Gas, Company Details

Table 56: SoCal Gas, Offtake Volumes

Table 57: Énergir, Company Details

Table 58: Énergir, Offtake Volumes

Table 59: BP, Company Details

Table 60: BP, Offtake Volumes

Table 61: UGI Corporation, Company Details

Table 62: UGI Corporation, Offtake Volumes

Table 63: Waste Management, Company Details

Table 64: Puget Sound Energy, Offtake Volumes

Table 65: North America Renewable Natural Gas, Facility Details

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