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Oregon CFP Market Outlook | Analyst Note | April 2024
Tuesday, 30th April 2024

Oregon has set ambitious environmental goals, aiming for a 10% decrease in carbon intensity by 2025 and more significant reductions by 2030 and 2035. Its Clean Fuel Program (OR CFP) has evolved over the years to promote clean fuel activities, with a focus on Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs). The program incentivizes residential charging and renewable diesel suppliers, with plans for further measures to enhance transparency and accountability. This analyst notes considers three scenarios for the credit bank up to 2035, influenced by factors like renewable diesel, biodiesel, and ethanol penetration, along with ZEV sales. The scenarios include a baseline, aggressive, and delayed outlook, each highlighting different trajectories for credit bank growth. Overall, Oregon is actively bringing in changes to CI reduction targets which would increase the credit prices in the coming years.

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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