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Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | Mar 2023
Wednesday, 1st March 2023

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel market size stood at US$1.1 billion in 2022, up from US$50 million in 2019 registering an annually compounded growth rate of 115.38%. As per cCarbon estimates, the market is expected to reach value of US$29.7 billion by 2030. The main driver of growth is the need to reduce Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

GHG emissions from aviation industry constitutes nearly 2% of the global GHG emission and approximately 11% of the transportation industry. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a biofuel which is used to power aircrafts and has a similar chemical property to conventional jet fuel albeit with a much lesser carbon footprint.

cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres. At the same time, research done at plant level showed global production in 2022 stood at 538 million litres. The future production is expected to reach 18.2 billion litres in 2030, registering an annual growth rate of 55.30%.

In 2022, Europe occupied the highest market share of 60% however, as per cCarbon research, North America will occupy the highest share at 36% by 2030. Other significant observation is the South America and Middle East which by the end of 2022 had no production will occupy 12% and 3% respectively.

Data collection from supply side was achieved by tracking the plants producing SAF worldwide for both active and planned. And demand side was modeled by tracking the offtake agreements worldwide which included data on the fuel producer, fuel purchaser, offtake volume agreement, offtake length and start year.

Table of Content
  1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Current Status and Expected Growth………………………………………………………………… 6

1.1     Emergence of Sustainable Aviation Fuel………………………….. 6

1.2     SAF market expected to grow 30x in the next 7 years…………. 6

1.3     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, 2019-2022…….. 7

1.4     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, 2022-2030…….. 8

1.5     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Regional Market Share (Production), 2022 and 2030………………………………………… 9

1.6     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size, 2019-2030…. 11

  1. Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel – Snapshot of Dynamics….. 13

2.1     Blending Limits- a key driver for SAF……………………………… 13

  1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel, PESTLE Analysis……………………. 15

3.1     Political Factors………………………………………………………… 15

3.2     Economic Factors……………………………………………………… 15

3.3     Social Factors…………………………………………………………… 16

3.4     Technological Factors………………………………………………… 17

3.5     Legal Factors……………………………………………………………. 17

3.6     Environmental Factors……………………………………………….. 17

  1. Global Sustainable Aviation: Pathways for production………. 18

4.1     Fischer-Tropsch Synthesized Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK)…. 20

4.2     Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)………….. 20

4.3     Hydroprocessed Fermented Sugars to Synthetic Isoparaffins (HFS-SIP)…………………………………………………………………. 21

4.4     Fischer-Tropsch Synthesized Paraffinic Kerosene with Aromatics (FT-SPK/A)…………………………………………………. 21

4.5     Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (ATJ-SPK)……… 22

4.6     Catalytic Hydrothermolysis Jet (CHJ)……………………………… 22

4.7     Hydrocarbon-Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HC-HEFA-SPK)……………………………………………………………….. 23

4.8     Co-processing………………………………………………………….. 23

4.9     Power to Liquid (PtL)…………………………………………………. 24

  1. Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis……………. 25

5.1     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, By Offtake Agreements…………………………………………………………….. 25

5.2     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Supply to Airports………………………………………………………………….. 26

5.3     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, By Capacity Addition…………………………………………………………………. 27

  1. Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Net Zero Emission Commitment, by Airlines…………………………………………. 30
  2. Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Book and Claim Process…. 31
  3. Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Policies and Framework…………………………………………………….. 32

8.1     Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Key Legislation in USA, EU. 33

  1. Company Profiles………………………………………………….. 35

9.2     Valero Energy Corporation………………………………………….. 37

9.3     World Energy…………………………………………………………… 38

9.4     Darling Ingredients Inc……………………………………………….. 38

9.5     Fulcrum Bioenergy……………………………………………………. 39

9.6     Renewable Energy Group…………………………………………… 40

9.7     Aemetis Inc……………………………………………………………… 41

9.8     Gevo Inc…………………………………………………………………. 42

9.9     Lanzatech……………………………………………………………….. 43

9.10   Red Rock Biofuels……………………………………………………… 44

  1. Conclusion and further research areas underway……………. 45

10.1   Additional research and coverage by cCarbon…………………. 45

  1. Annexures…………………………………………………………… 46

11.1   Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market, Supply to Airports. 46

11.2   Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market, Offtake Agreement 48

11.3   Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Plant Details……………………………………………………………………. 51

11.4   Abbreviations…………………………………………………………… 66

11.5   Definitions………………………………………………………………. 66

11.6   Methodology…………………………………………………………… 67

  1. About cCarbon.info……………………………………………….. 69

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Production (In Million Litres), 2019-2022. 7

Figure 2: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, (In Million Litres), 2022-2030. 8

Figure 3: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Regional Market Share, 2022. 9

Figure 4: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Regional Market Share, 2030. 10

Figure 5: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2019-2030. 12

Figure 6: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, By Offtake Agreements. 26

Figure 7: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, By Capacity Addition, 2023-2030. 27

List of Tables

Table 1: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Production (In Million Litres), 2019-2022. 7

Table 2: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production, (In Million Litres), 2022-2030. 8

Table 3: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2019-2022. 11

Table 4: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Market Size (In US$ Million), 2022-2030. 11

Table 5: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, by Pathways and Feedstock. 19

Table 6: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, By Offtake Agreements. 25

Table 7: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, By Capacity Addition, 2023-2030. 27

Table 8: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, By Capacity Addition, Region-Wise, 2023-2030 (In Million Litres) 28

Table 9: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, By Number of Plants, Region and Year Wise, 2023-2030. 28

Table 10: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Net Zero Emission Commitment, By Airlines. 30

Table 11: Neste Oyj, Company Details. 35

Table 12: Neste Oyj, Operational Details. 36

Table 13: Valero Energy Corporation, Company Details. 37

Table 14: Valero Energy Corporation, Operational Details. 37

Table 15: World Energy Company Details. 38

Table 16: World Energy Operational Details. 38

Table 17: Darling Ingredients Inc., Company Details. 39

Table 18: Darling Ingredients Inc., Operational Details. 39

Table 19: Fulcrum Bioenergy, Company Details. 39

Table 20: Fulcrum Bioenergy, Operational Details. 40

Table 21: Renewable Energy Group, Company Details. 40

Table 22: Renewable Energy Group, Operational Details. 41

Table 23: Aemetis Inc., Company Details. 41

Table 24: Aemetis Inc., Operational Details. 42

Table 25: Gevo Inc., Company Details. 42

Table 26: Gevo Inc., Operational Details. 43

Table 27: LanzaTech, Company Details. 43

Table 28: LanzaTech, Operational Details. 43

Table 29: Red Rock Biofuels, Company Details. 44

Table 30: Red Rock Biofuels, Operational Details. 44

Table 31: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Supply to Airports. 46

Table 32: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Offtake Agreement 48

Table 33: Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis, Plant Details. 51

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cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
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