• InSights
  • North American Renewable Diesel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | October 2023
Sustainable Fuels
RD
RFS
OR CFP
BC LCFS
CA LCFS
North American Renewable Diesel Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | October 2023
Tuesday, 10th October 2023

The North American market for renewable diesel is expected to experience remarkable growth, driven by supportive regulatory frameworks, increasing consumer demand for sustainable fuels, and a growing awareness of the need to combat climate change. As per our research, the North American renewable diesel consumption stood at 6.9 billion liters in 2022 and is projected to reach 27.3 billion liters by 2030.

North America’s market growth can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the region has been at the forefront of renewable diesel adoption through the establishment of clean fuel standards and several nationwide incentive frameworks. These market-based regulatory mechanisms have spurred increased investments in renewable diesel and have augmented the demand for this alternative fuel. The market dynamics in North America are further fueled by partnerships between biofuel producers, major oil refineries and feedstock suppliers, leading to increased production capacity and market penetration.

With a lower carbon footprint, and compatibility with existing engines and infrastructure, renewable diesel has emerged as a promising solution for decarbonizing the transportation sector. However, the expected boom in capacity by 2030 could result in issues pertaining to feedstock availability. Overall, the gross margins that can be generated through renewable diesel production are expected to remain lucrative, with CFS credits and other nationwide incentives offsetting the cost of producing the fuel from different feedstock types. Overall, with a strong regulatory framework and promising market figures, renewable diesel is poised to play a vital role in driving the region towards a cleaner and more environmentally friendly energy future.

Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary………………………………………………… 9
  2. Introduction to the Renewable Diesel Market……………….. 10

2.1     Market Snapshot………………………………………………………. 10

  1. North America Renewable Diesel, Data Analysis, 2018-2030 11

3.1     North America Renewable Diesel Production, 2018-2030….. 11

3.2     North America Renewable Diesel Market Size, 2018-2030…. 14

3.3     North America Renewable Diesel Import, 2018-2030……….. 18

3.4     North America Renewable Diesel Ending Stocks/Exports, 2018-2030………………………………………………………………. 20

3.5     North America Renewable Diesel Capacity Addition, 2023-2030………………………………………………………………………. 22

3.6     North America Renewable Diesel Facility Addition, 2009-2030………………………………………………………………………. 23

  1. North America, Renewable Diesel Feedstock Analysis, 2018-2030 …………………………………………………………………. 24

4.1     Synopsis of Feedstock Analysis…………………………………….. 24

4.2     North America Feedstock Total Production, By Type, 2018-2022………………………………………………………………………. 24

4.3     North America Feedstock Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2022 27

4.4     North America Feedstock, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2022 29

4.5     North America Feedstock, Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2022………………………………………………………………. 31

4.6     United States, Feedstock Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2022…………………………………………………… 33

4.7     North America Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2018-2030……………………………………… 36

4.8     North America Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2023-2030……………………………………… 37

4.9     North America Feedstock Prices, By Type, 2018-2030………. 38

  1. North America Renewable Diesel, Analysis of Clean Fuel Standards, 2018-2030…………………………………………….. 40

5.1     Clean Fuel Standards in North America:  An Introduction….. 40

5.2     North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030………………………………………. 42

5.3     North America Renewable Diesel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030………………………… 44

5.4     North America Renewable Diesel, Average Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030…………………….. 46

5.5     North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030……… 48

5.6     North America Renewable Diesel, Pathways Registered in Clean Fuel Standard Markets, 2018-2022……………………….. 50

5.7     Average Credit Prices Across Clean Fuel Markets, 2018-2022 53

  1. North America Renewable Diesel, Cost-Benefit Analysis….. 55

6.1     Introduction and Methodology……………………………………. 55

6.2     North America Renewable Diesel, Cost-Benefit Analysis by Feedstock, 2018-2030……………………………………………….. 55

6.3     North America Renewable Diesel, Cost-Benefit Analysis by CFS Market, 2018-2030……………………………………………… 62

  1. North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis…………… 66

7.1     North America Renewable Diesel, Specifications and Fuel Properties……………………………………………………………….. 66

7.2     North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology 67

7.3     North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, by Prices 68

  1. North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, Policies and Regulatory Framework………………………………………. 70

8.1    Existing policies:……………………………………………………….. 70

8.2    Recent Developments:………………………………………………. 71

  1. North American Renewable Diesel Market Dynamics ………. 74

9.1     Market Drivers…………………………………………………………. 74

9.2     Market Challenges……………………………………………………. 74

9.3     Market Opportunities………………………………………………… 75

9.4     Trends in North American Market………………………………… 75

  1. North America Renewable Diesel, PESTLE Analysis………….. 77

10.1   Political Factors………………………………………………………… 77

10.2   Economic Factors……………………………………………………… 77

10.3   Social Factors…………………………………………………………… 78

10.4   Technological Factors………………………………………………… 78

10.5   Legal Factors……………………………………………………………. 79

10.6   Environmental Factors……………………………………………….. 79

  1. Competitive Landscape ………………………………………….. 80

11.1   Competitive Rivalry…………………………………………………… 80

11.2   Supplier Power…………………………………………………………. 80

11.3   Buyer Power……………………………………………………………. 80

11.4   Threat of Substitution………………………………………………… 80

11.5   Threat of New Entry………………………………………………….. 80

11.6   Total Renewable Diesel Nameplate Capacity (Million Litres) and investment (US$ million) by 2030…………………………… 81

  1. Company Profiles …………………………………………………. 83

12.1   Shell plc………………………………………………………………….. 83

12.2   Phillips 66……………………………………………………………….. 83

12.3   Darling Ingredients……………………………………………………. 84

12.4   Valero Energy Corporation………………………………………….. 85

12.5   Neste……………………………………………………………………… 86

12.6   Chevron Corporation…………………………………………………. 86

12.7   Marathon Petroleum Corporation………………………………… 87

12.8   HF Sinclair Corporation………………………………………………. 88

12.9   ExxonMobil……………………………………………………………… 89

12.10 CVR Energy……………………………………………………………… 89

  1. North America Renewable Diesel Producer Database ………. 91

13.1   North America, Renewable Diesel, Plant Details………………. 91

  1. Conclusion …………………………………………………………. 97
  2. Appendix……………………………………………………………. 99

15.1   Abbreviations…………………………………………………………… 99

15.2   Market Definitions………………………………………………….. 100

15.3   Methodology…………………………………………………………. 100

  1. About cCarbon.info……………………………………………… 105

16.1   References…………………………………………………………….. 107

List of Figures

Figure 1: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 11

Figure 2: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Liters), 2023-2030. 12

Figure 3: United States Renewable Diesel Regional Production Market Share, 202. 13

Figure 4: United States Renewable Diesel Regional Market Share, 2030. 13

Figure 5: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 14

Figure 6: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Liters), 2023-2030. 15

Figure 7: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value (In Million USD), 2018-2022. 16

Figure 8: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In Million USD), 2023-2030. 17

Figure 9: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports (in Million Liters), 2018-2022. 18

Figure 10: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports, (In Million Liters), 2023-2030. 19

Figure 11: North America Renewable Diesel Ending Stocks/Exports (in Million Liters), 2018-2022. 20

Figure 12: North America Renewable Diesel, Ending Stocks/Exports, (In Million Liters), 2023-2030. 21

Figure 13: North American Renewable Diesel, Capacity Addition (In Million Liters), 2023-2030. 22

Figure 14: North America, Renewable Diesel, Facility Locations by 2030. 23

Figure 15: United States Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 25

Figure 16: Canada Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 26

Figure 17: United States Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 27

Figure 18: Canada Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 28

Figure 19: United States Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 29

Figure 20: Canada Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 30

Figure 21: United States Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 31

Figure 22: Canada Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 32

Figure 23: United States, Soybean Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2022. 33

Figure 24: Soybean Oil, United States Consumption Breakdown, 2022. 34

Figure 25: United States, Corn Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2022. 34

Figure 26: United States, Rapeseed Oil, Consumption (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2022. 35

Figure 27: United States, Tallow, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2022. 35

Figure 28: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement (1000 MT), 2018-2022. 36

Figure 29: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement (1000 MT), 2023-2030. 37

Figure 30: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2018-2022. 38

Figure 31: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (USD/MT), By Type, 2018-2022. 39

Figure 32: Clean Fuel Standards across North America. 40

Figure 33: North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in Million Liters), 2018-2022. 42

Figure 34: North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in Million Liters), 2023-2030. 43

Figure 35: North America Renewable Diesel, Total Credits Generation, 2018-2022. 44

Figure 36: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation, (In Million MT), 2023-2030. 45

Figure 37: North America Renewable Diesel, Average Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2022. 46

Figure 38: North America Renewable Diesel, Average Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2022. 47

Figure 39: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In $M), 2018-2022  48

Figure 40: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in $M), 2023-2030  49

Figure 41: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2022. 50

Figure 42: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2022. 51

Figure 43: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2022. 53

Figure 44: Average CFS Credit Prices, 2018-2022. 54

Figure 45: North America Renewable Diesel, Production Cost by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 56

Figure 46: North America Renewable Diesel, Production Cost by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 57

Figure 47: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 58

Figure 48: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 59

Figure 49: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 60

Figure 50: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 61

Figure 51: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 62

Figure 52: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 63

Figure 53: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 64

Figure 54: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 65

Figure 55: North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology, 2022. 67

Figure 56: North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology, 2030. 67

Figure 57: Renewable Diesel and Petroleum Diesel Prices, California, 2018-2022. 69

Figure 58: Renewable Diesel and Crude Oil Prices, 2018-2022  69

Figure 59: Market share by Nameplate Capacity, for Top 10 companies by 2030. 82

List of Table

Table 1: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 11

Table 2: North American Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Litres), 2023-2030. 12

Table 3: State-wise Production of Renewable Diesel, 2022 and 2030 (in Million Litres) 13

Table 4: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume, (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 14

Table 5: North American Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Litres), 2023-2030. 15

Table 6: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In Million USD), 2018-2022. 16

Table 7: North American Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In Million USD), 2023-2030. 17

Table 8: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 18

Table 9: North American Renewable Diesel, Imports, (In Million Litres), 2023-2030. 19

Table 10: North America Renewable Diesel, Ending Stocks/Exports (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 20

Table 11: North American Renewable Diesel, Ending Stocks/Exports, (In Million Litres), 2023-2030. 21

Table 12: North American Renewable Diesel, Capacity Addition (In Million Litres), 2023-2030. 22

Table 13: North American Renewable Diesel, Plants Start-Up Year, Location. 23

Table 14: United States Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 25

Table 15: Canada Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 26

Table 16: United States Fee dstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 27

Table 17: Canada Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 28

Table 18: United States Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 29

Table 19: Canada cFeedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 30

Table 20: United States Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 31

Table 21: Canada Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 32

Table 22: United States, Feedstock Consumption Analysis (Biofuels vs Others, In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 33

Table 23: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2022. 36

Table 24: North American Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement, (In 1000 MT), 2023-2030. 37

Table 25: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2018-2022. 38

Table 26: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (USD/MT), By Type, 2018-2022. 39

Table 27: North America Renewable Diesel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In Million Liters), 2018-2022. 42

Table 28: North America Renewable Diesel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In Million Liters), 2023-2030. 43

Table 29: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation (In Million MT), 2018-2022. 44

Table 30: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation (In Million MT), 2023-2030. 45

Table 31: North America Renewable Diesel, Average Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2022. 46

Table 32: North America Renewable Diesel, Average Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ), 2023-2030. 47

Table 33: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in $M), 2018-2022  48

Table 34: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in $M), 2023-2030  49

Table 35: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2022. 50

Table 36: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2022. 51

Table 37: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Active Pathways Registered by Facilities. 52

Table 38: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2022. 53

Table 39: Average CFS Credit Prices (USD/MT), 2018-2022  54

Table 40: North America Renewable Diesel, Production Cost by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 55

Table 41: North America Renewable Diesel, Production Cost by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 57

Table 42: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 58

Table 43: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 59

Table 44: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 60

Table 45: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by Feedstock ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 61

Table 46: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 62

Table 47: North America Renewable Diesel, Potential Revenue by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 63

Table 48: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2018-2022. 64

Table 49: North America Renewable Diesel, Gross Margin by CFS Market ($/Litre), 2023-2030. 65

Table 50: Renewable Diesel ASTM-D975 Specifications. 66

Table 51: CGSB-3.517 Standards for Renewable Diesel 66

Table 52: Renewable Diesel and Diesel Fuel Prices (US$/gallon), 2018-2022. 68

Table 53: Renewable Diesel and Crude Oil Prices (US$/gallon), 2018-2022. 69

Table 54: Total Renewable Diesel Nameplate Capacity (Million Litres) and investment (US$ million) by 2030. 81

Table 55: Shell plc, Company Details. 83

Table 56: Shell plc, Operational Details. 83

Table 57: Phillips 66, Company Details. 84

Table 58: Phillips 66, Operational Details. 84

Table 59: Darling Ingredients Inc., Company Details. 84

Table 60: Darling Ingredients, Operational Details. 84

Table 61: Valero Energy Corporation, Company Details. 85

Table 62: Valero Energy Corporation, Operational Details  85

Table 63: Neste Oyj, Company Details. 86

Table 64: Neste Oyj, Operational Details. 86

Table 65: Chevron Corporation Company Details. 87

Table 66: Chevron Operational Details. 87

Table 67: Marathon Petroleum Corporation Company Details  87

Table 68: Marathon Petroleum Operational Details. 88

Table 69: HF Sinclair Company Details. 88

Table 70: HF Sinclair Operational Details. 88

Table 71: ExxonMobil Company Details. 89

Table 72: ExxonMobil Operational Details. 89

Table 73: CVR Energy Company Details. 89

Table 74: CVR Energy Operational Details. 90

Table 75: North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, Plant Details. 91

Table 76: List of Abbreviations. 99

Explore Membership Options to get access to this InSight
cCarbon has mapped both the demand as well as supply of SAF to size the market. The research indicates that global SAF consumption in 2022 (as per offtake agreements) stood at 494 million litres.
See Memberships