The analyst note provides an outlook for Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) program, against the backdrop of the continuous support from the provincial government to build the Carbon Capture and Storage. Alberta’s heavy reliance on its oil and gas sector becomes a focal point, with 70% of its emissions coming from oil and gas. In 2023, only 10% of the new CCUS capacity that was planned to come online actually did so, highlighting the delays between planned dates and the facilities becoming operational. Even with increased incentives, it is very likely that these projects will still experience delays of 5 years or more. Our modeling indicates that in the baseline scenario, where 75% of the proposed capacity experiences a 5-year delay, we expect the market to face a surplus of over 80 million offsets, EPCs, and other credits. The note highlights the pivotal role of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCUS) initiatives, underscored by generous incentives, yet uncertainty looms beyond 2030.

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