The RGGI market faces a much more daunting task in abatement, as the transition from natural gas to renewables is proving to be much harder than the one from coal to natural gas. As of now, the cap is declining at 3% YoY, but this is expected to tighten as RGGI targets a zero cap by 2040. Emissions are hence expected to breach the cap, as the surplus bank declines and RGAs trade above the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) trigger price. This analyst note aims to dive into what these scenarios mean for prices, emissions, the surplus bank, and how this affects potential regulatory amendments.

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